about those numbers.....

Tricky Little Things

We are just now getting around to last weeks BIG post convention bump from the POTUS. I was expecting an Everest of a bounce, fast up and just as fast down, back to the trenches - slogging it out as we slide towards November. But - so far - at least from what my very untrained eyes can see - that is not the case.

On paper this should not be happening. In the larger world of political theory this is pure Carter v Reagan, slam dunk for any empty suit coming against a sitting President in VERY rough economic times. But, I think those are the old rules and a great big case of that was then, this is now. Because the numbers are NOT coming down as fast as they went up. This is today over at  Big Nate's -House-of-Politics:

This is his forecast - again, almost NEVER wrong - for Nov. 3erd. His forecast for right now are so off the charts that even to me , the yellowest of the yellow dogs, they seem fanciful.
Look at in another way :

The Obama campaign can lose all these grey states, Ohio and Florida and STILL win. This is every state the John Kerry won, plus Nevada ( Harry Reid JUST re-elected) New Mexico ( now dark blue ) and Virginia - with only the last of these really being in play. I do not think it is over - what are we - 54 days out ! ( that is more than a little shocking )

Yesterday's tragic events in the Middle East did nothing at all to move Mitt up in the polls. I think it may have pushed a few CRAZY people even a bit more right, but they are a tiny minority.